Where Will SpaceX Stock Be in 1 Year?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -13.61%), otherwise known as SpaceX, delivered a blowout earnings report for the period ended June 30. It blew past Wall Street expectations on the top and bottom lines, and management believes it has a massive long-term opportunity.
The market, however, wasn’t impressed. SpaceX fell after the report on Aug. 4 but has since regained some of its losses. Considering how volatile the stock has been, it won’t be easy to determine where it could be at this time next year, but let’s give it a try.
All the important numbers
First, let’s start with some of the second-quarter highlights:
- Revenue increased 92% year over year to $7.8 billion.
- Loss per share improved from $0.26 last year to $0.09 this year.
- Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased 191% to $1.2 billion.
These are clearly fantastic results for the company in total. Let’s break it down further, though, and see how each of the company’s three divisions is performing right now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Space revenue increased 29% over last year to $962 million, and the division produced an operating loss of $542 million, up from $369 million. It had 38 launches, down from 44 in the year-ago period, and it delivered 485 tons to orbit. SpaceX continues to improve the technology and believes it can lower the total cost to 99% of the historical average.
Starlink revenue increased 66% year over year to $4.3 billion, and operating profit increased 79% to $1.7 billion. That was driven by a doubling of subscriber growth to 12 million and, specifically, by enterprise contracts, which generated a 108% increase in revenue. That led to a steady average revenue per user of $66 despite the new users.
Artificial intelligence (AI) revenue increased 247% over last year to $2.6 billion, and operating loss slightly improved to $1.3 billion. It contracted for $14 billion in cloud computing agreements, which added $1.4 billion in revenue in the quarter. Once it’s done acquiring coding company Cursor, it could add even greater revenue.
Where SpaceX could be in one year
The market zeroed in on the company’s $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, $15.8 billion of which went to AI. CFO Bret Johnsen said the company will make that back within a year, but the market appears wary of that prediction.
Wall Street is expecting $39 billion in sales in 2026, a 108% increase, and $73 billion in 2027, an 87% increase over the average 2026 expectation. The average Wall Street analyst price target is $220, almost double today’s price.
Space Exploration Technologies
Today’s Change
(-13.61%) $-17.06
Current Price
$108.27
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$106.66 – $117.50
52wk Range
$104.83 – $225.64
Volume
208.5M
Avg Vol
117.4M
If SpaceX continues to blow past expectations, there’s a good chance its stock will be in better shape to steadily rise. A year from now, it will also be past all of its staggered lockup periods, which will provide greater stability. However, with Elon Musk at the helm, charting a new path toward the moon, there may always be risk and volatility associated with SpaceX stock.
With the new sales added to the equation, SpaceX now trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 63, a good deal lower than before the report. That kind of valuation still has loads of growth built into it, and the stock may not be able to move meaningfully higher until the company’s growth outpaces its valuation.
My personal assessment is that there won’t be significant movement until after the lockup periods end. Once all the shares are available to market, investors can make better-informed decisions about the stock’s value without external noise, and the price in August 2027 will reflect more of the company’s fundamentals at that time.
