This paper has been prepared for the volume accompanying the Centennial Conference of the Central Bank of Chile in November 2025. Early versions of this material appeared in our paper “A Model of U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle.” We thank Ozge Akinci, Ricardo Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Sylvain Leduc, Guido Lorenzoni, Thomas Mertens, Juan Morelli, Alessandro Rebucci, Ricardo Reis, and Hyun Song Shin for discussions. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.