Trump promised agriculture ‘golden age.’ Iowa farmers say they’re waiting

IOWA — Farmer Aaron Lehman’s health insurance premiums have more than doubled since the start of the year, after Congress decided not to extend federal subsidies after they ended. As the Iran war drags on, the cost of diesel, fertilizer and other inputs he relies on to run his Polk City farm are up. And crop prices have been concerningly low.

Lehman grows soybeans, corn, oats and hay on the land his family has worked for five generations. The Lehmans and other Iowa farmers have endured difficult times, but 2026 — with all the volatility around trade and foreign wars — feels different from recent years, Lehman said, despite President Donald Trump‘s promises of a “golden age of American agriculture.”

“Farmers are really tightening their belts,” Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, a nonpartisan organization that works to advance the causes of farmers and sustainable agriculture, told CNBC on his farm.

“It’s one thing to say there’s a golden age of agriculture right around the corner. Where?” Lehman said. “There’s no indication that we’re progressing towards healthier family farmers, that our rural communities are thriving under these policies.”

Lehman is one of many farmers — normally a reliably conservative group — voicing his concerns about the administration’s policies and raising alarms about the direction of the agricultural economy in Iowa, as well as throughout much of the country.

The White House, in a statement to CNBC, pinned the blame on Trump’s predecessor.

“Farmers suffered for years under Joe Biden, who increased the United States’ trade deficit to over $1.2 trillion, raised input costs, and pushed woke DEI agricultural policies,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

In addition to criticizing the Biden administration for not securing trade deals, which Trump said crippled the agricultural sector, the president has touted his rollbacks of certain regulations and the doubling of the so-called “death tax” exemption, which eases the financial burden on heirs when farmers pass down their equipment and acreage.

Trump also ordered his administration to distribute $12 billion in direct payments to farmers using tariff revenue. In late June, the White House sent an $87.6 billion supplemental funding request to Congress mostly to help pay for the Iran war but also including more than $10 billion in aid to farmers. The House in July approved a $95 billion budget package to help fund the war that includes $12 billion in farm aid.

But his tariff regime has shut off markets that U.S. farmers rely on heavily. The Iran war has put pressure on supply for necessities such as fuel and fertilizer and has at times sent prices soaring. And inflation and high healthcare costs have only increased the pressure on farmers. 

Amid these headwinds, approval of Trump has fallen to new lows among rural voters, according to a Fox News poll released in July. That poll found just 44 percent of rural Americans approve of Trump, down 14 points from the same poll taken in June.

That’s higher than Trump’s 40% approval rating among voters across the country, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, released July 17, but down from 60% approval among rural voters at the start of his second term. It’s a potentially troubling development for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, in which they’re trying to stave off a Democratic wave and retain narrow majorities in the U.S. House and Senate.

At best, Trump’s impact on farmers has been a mixed bag, according to Chad Hart, an economics professor at Iowa State University.

Hart said the farm economy was already struggling at the beginning of the second Trump administration but that things have gotten worse and less predictable. 

“I think farmers felt they had their pathway forward,” Hart said, of the period at the start of Trump’s latest term. “Change in policies meant we’ve seen more uncertainty there, and I think that has led to more concern for farmers as they’re looking forward. Because right now they’re not necessarily seeing where the endpoint is going to be with a lot of this.”

A punch in the mouth

Figures published by the American Farm Bureau Federation in July paint a bleak picture.

High inflation, low commodity prices and volatile production costs are projected to lead to a $32 billion loss on major crops in 2027 for U.S. farmers, up from a $31 billion projected loss in 2026, the trade group reported.

In an April survey, the group found 70% of U.S. farmers said they couldn’t afford all the fertilizer they need.

Meanwhile, a joint report published this month by Iowa State University, the Iowa Farm Bureau and the Iowa Bankers Association found farm bankruptcies were up in 2025 and 2026 over those of the previous several years, both in Iowa and nationwide. The groups also reported that 19% of midsize and large Iowa farms they sampled were financially vulnerable in December 2025, more than double the number in 2022.

And more than a quarter of farmers, ranchers and agricultural managers rely on individual market health insurance, which is mainly composed of Affordable Care Act plans, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation. That means many, such as Lehman, could be facing higher premiums since the ACA subsidies expired in January, as most congressional Republicans refused to extend them.

Marc Short, who was White House director of legislative affairs in Trump’s first term in office, wrote in a recent Washington Post op-ed that “President Trump’s trade policies have punched farmers in the mouth.” 

Trump’s tariffs on China, which led to retaliatory duties and a Chinese pivot to other markets for products such as soybeans, have been particularly damaging, Short said in an interview with CNBC.

“In the first administration, we also assessed tariffs on China and there were repercussions for farmers. But I think there was a narrative that explained why China is our country’s greatest threat,” said Short, who was Vice President Mike Pence‘s chief of staff and is now board chair of Advancing American Freedom, the public policy organization Pence founded. 

“I think the difference was there were alternative markets to go to. And right now a lot of farmers do not have alternative markets to go to because the trade war has been so indiscriminate,” Short said.

What’s the big economic picture for farmers?

Stress from the Trump administration’s policies on farmers has not been evenly felt, according to Hart. Corn growers, he said, have been one relative exception.

“We didn’t see a lot of response from our international customers when it came to retaliatory tariffs [on corn],” Hart said. “And right now, the corn market is actually experiencing one of the best years it’s ever had in terms of moving quantities.”

That may be in part because of high global consumer demand for protein, Hart said. There’s a huge need for corn and other crops traditionally used to feed livestock, he said, which has helped certain producers. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, corn growers produced 17 billion bushels in 2025, up from just under 15 billion the year prior.

“It’s not necessarily that we’re seeing the highest value of our corn exports, but when it comes to the number of bushels we’re moving to the rest of the world, we’re actually on a record pace right now,” Hart said.

Some say the Trump administration’s deregulatory bent has also been a boon to farmers. In the last year and a half, the White House has moved to boost domestic production of certain pesticides, and reduced regulations to expand access to crop insurance, in addition to raising the estate tax exemption.

Jason Rogers, a corn, soybean and cattle farmer in Ottumwa who also runs a trucking business, said the deregulation helped but that more would be welcome. 

Rogers acknowledged that times are tough for farmers now but said Trump inherited at least some of that situation.

“I think Biden created a lot of the problems that we have now. I think the Obama administration created a lot,” Rogers said.

Rep. Zach Nunn, a GOP incumbent running for reelection in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, said in an interview on Rogers’ property that farmers are struggling and similarly pointed to Biden as a cause.

“I think we need to remember the fact that for the last four years under the Biden administration, we didn’t have a single new trade deal for farmers. As a result, U.S. farmers lost $50 billion in global market share. That’s unacceptable,” said Nunn, citing a figure from the USDA under Trump.

Nunn and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a Republican seeking reelection in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, also have touted the House’s recent passage of legislation to allow year-round sales of E15, an ethanol gasoline blend that’s a boon to corn growers, as a positive sign for farmers in the Trump era.

But more than two months after it advanced out of the lower chamber, the legislation has not come up in the Senate. Lehman is skeptical it will.

“The E15 promise has been made many, many times, by multiple administrations. It has never garnered the support to get across the finish line,” he said.

Short said he imagines the White House understands the complex situation farmers are finding themselves in. But he hasn’t seen much effort to correct course, which he says could have political ramifications.

“I’m not witnessing policy changes,” Short said, warning that could translate into risks for the GOP in November. “If there’s a lack of enthusiasm among a core constituency, I think there’s a huge risk to Republicans.”

Lehman said farmers need more help from Washington.

Congress has not passed a farm bill — a legislative package normally done every five years that governs agricultural and food programs — since 2018. That bill can impact programs crucial to the agricultural sector, such as subsidized crop insurance, commodity price support and rural nutrition programs.

And while Trump has sent direct payments to farmers — the White House offered tens of billions of dollars in aid in his first term, in addition to the $12 billion announced at the end of 2025 — they’ve received mixed reviews. 

“We are seeing financial support flowing to farmers, which again does help them continue to run their farm businesses,” Hart said. “But it’s not addressing the underlying problems within the agricultural economy.”

“A lot of farmers would tell you that they would really prefer to get income from the marketplace, as opposed to additional government support. And that a lot of them are wanting more certainty in policy right now,” Hart said. 

Rogers expressed a similar sentiment.

“One thing I would say about agriculture and farmers is we’re more interested in the big picture than we are in the near-term,” Rogers said. “And so I think everybody is willing to struggle a little bit if it ends up benefiting us in the long run. I think the big concern is right now, I don’t know that anybody sees what the big picture is.”