SpaceX Is Down 45% From Its All-Time High, and the Pain Is Just Beginning for Shareholders
Six weeks ago, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence (AI) and space infrastructure conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 3.20%), was the talk of Wall Street.
On June 12, SpaceX raised $85.7 billion from its initial public offering (IPO), including the underwriters’ overallotment. This nearly tripled the previous largest-ever IPO capital raise of $29.4 billion from overseas oil giant Saudi Aramco.
Image source: Getty Images.
But IPO buzz fades quickly on Wall Street, and reality can hit even the most-hyped stocks like a ton of bricks. Since peaking at $225.64 per share intra-day on June 16, SpaceX stock has plunged 45% to less than $124 per share (as of the July 17 close).
Some investors will undoubtedly see a bargain, given Elon Musk’s track record at Tesla and SpaceX’s opportunity amid the two hottest trends on Wall Street: AI and the space economy. I see far more pain to come for shareholders as historical precedent takes hold.
The accelerated unlock period is quickly approaching
For starters, SpaceX’s insiders (high-ranking executives, board members, and early investors) are set to enjoy the greatest wealth transfer in history. In a matter of weeks, most insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares to retail investors.
Whereas most newly public companies adhere to a 180-day lockup period, in which insiders can’t sell their shares, SpaceX offers a staggered and accelerated unlock schedule that begins two days after the company’s first quarterly operating report as a public company. SpaceX is currently estimated to report its latest quarterly operating results on Aug. 6.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of “passive” funds (which is why there’s arguably no such… pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 28, 2026
The company’s float is set to grow every few weeks through mid-December, adding downside pressure on SpaceX stock.
Historically, SpaceX’s valuation is a nightmare
Although it’s not uncommon for investors to place high premiums on companies at the forefront of game-changing technologies, SpaceX’s valuation is historical nightmare fuel.
No company heralding the charge of a leading innovation has ever sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 for any lengthy period. SpaceX is currently trading at 42 times Wall Street’s consensus sales estimate for this year. In other words, Musk’s company would need to fall nearly 30% more from its current level just to push below historic bubble territory.
Furthermore, the company isn’t particularly close to recurring profits, and its capital-intensive operating model leaves virtually no margin for error or delays.
Image source: Getty Images.
Debt and equity offerings are coming
To round things out, SpaceX’s prospectus made clear that, in addition to its IPO capital raise, debt and equity offerings would be used to fund the company’s AI infrastructure expansion, among other corporate initiatives.
Less than two weeks after going public, the company priced a $25 billion bond offering, with maturities from 2031 to 2056. The price of these bonds has been falling steadily since issuance, signifying concern from bondholders that SpaceX may be unable to meet its obligations.
Additionally, equity offerings would be dilutive to existing shareholders. Given that SpaceX is spending a small fortune on its AI data center build-out, capital-raising activity that weighs on the company’s shares is a near-certainty.
