For helpful comments and questions, we thank Peter Ganong, Dmitri Koustas, Pascal Noel, Dhiren Patki, Evan Soltas, and numerous seminar participants. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or the official positions of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Federal Reserve System or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Any taxpayer data used in this research was kept in a secured Treasury or IRS data repository, and all results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. Isen acknowledges funding from the Laura and John Arnold Foundation.