Nvidia’s Shareholder Meeting Is Aug. 26. Here’s What Investors Should Be Looking Out For.
Nvidia (NVDA +2.93%), arguably the most popular artificial intelligence (AI) stock on the planet, is also the most valuable company on the planet. Its growth trajectory, however, could just be getting started.
According to research from Stanford University, today’s AI models already meet or exceed human baselines on Ph.D.-level science questions, multimodal reasoning, and competition mathematics. But there’s still a long way to go until these models control huge swaths of the economy. One model, for example, recently won a gold medal at an international math competition. Yet that same model was able to read analog clocks correctly just 50.1% of the time.
In short, we are still very much in the early innings of both AI adoption and AI capabilities. McKinsey & Company forecasts that more than $5 trillion will be spent globally through 2030 alone on building additional data center infrastructure. Through 2040, a staggering $19 trillion is projected to be deployed to fuel the AI revolution.
As the world’s largest AI chip manufacturer, Nvidia sits at the center of this ongoing revolution. Later this month, the company reports second-quarter earnings after market close. Here are the two biggest factors investors should be monitoring.
Today’s Change
(2.93%) $5.71
Current Price
$200.75
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$194.95 – $202.00
52wk Range
$164.07 – $236.54
Volume
140M
Avg Vol
152.6M
Gross Margin
74.15%
Dividend Yield
0.14%
1. What is happening with Blackwell and Vera Rubin?
Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture was officially announced in early 2024. Shipments began later that year. These chips quickly sold out, and at one point, reports suggested that a backlog existed that could persist for 12 months or longer. If there was any doubt that Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) were dominant, Blackwell’s initial sales traction put those doubts to rest.
Nvidia’s Vera Rubin architecture was also teased in 2024. Sales, however, only began earlier this year. While reports have suggested production issues, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently confirmed that “Vera Rubin is already in production,” adding that there are “giant amounts of production incoming.”
While the two are designed for different purposes, Nvidia’s next earnings report should shed light on whether Vera Rubin sales are competing with Blackwell sales. We’ll also get a better idea of Vera Rubin’s sales pace and potential backlog, as well as more firm updates on production. The specifics of these updates should have a big effect on the market’s understanding of Nvidia’s current competitiveness and future sales potential.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Is management concerned with rising competition?
While other experts will be keeping a close eye on margins, China exposure, and future product teasers, I’ll be monitoring Nvidia management’s comments on rising competition for GPU manufacturing.
Scores of companies, ranging from space stocks like SpaceX to electric vehicle makers like Rivian, are planning to design and build their own AI chips in-house. These companies will remain heavily reliant on Nvidia over the coming years until their internal manufacturing facilities are built and up to spec. How concerned is Nvidia regarding the long-term potential of key clients manufacturing their own chips?
“Company after company has lined up to challenge Nvidia’s grip on AI chips,” reports Quartz. “The big cloud providers building their own chips aren’t walking away from Nvidia entirely,” the publication stresses. But they are looking to reduce their reliance on Nvidia, which, by most estimates, holds 70% to 95% of the AI chip market.
The AI market is growing so quickly that Nvidia can afford to lose share and still grow in absolute size. This quarter — and in future quarters — I’ll be closely monitoring how management is discussing rising competition, especially from key customers.
