Numbers That Crunch President Trump | American Enterprise Institute
President Trump often says we’re the hottest country in the world, seeing trillions in investment. His number keeps rising while the Department of Commerce just restated $19.2 trillion. Most of this is from domestic sources, but the White House tally for foreign investment looks close to $6 trillion, led by the UAE, Qatar, Japan plus others as well as foreign firms. Data appeared this week showing the President’s off the mark, by trillions of dollars.
The data are from a bureau of that same Department of Commerce. If you look carefully, you can find a file updated for 2025 that shows the historical position of foreign direct investment in the United States (“stock”) rose $438 billion last year. This is more than the isolated 2025 “flow” results, and so is fairer to the President. It’s also notably more than the $100-billion improvement in stock seen in 2024 under Biden.
But this pace won’t reach $6 trillion until 2038. Current shortfalls are stark. Investment from the UAE, which the White House says will someday touch $1.4 trillion, barely budged in 2025. Qatar, said to be investing $1.2 trillion, isn’t even recorded on its own. “Other” investment from the Middle East fell last year. Saudi Arabia’s investment rose by $300 million. It has supposedly pledged 2000 times that. (Note the Iran war hadn’t yet started.)
Perhaps these countries lied to the President; it’s not like Qatar has been a friend of ours. But what about Japan, possibly the most stalwart American ally? $1 trillion promised, says the White House, and a bit over $10 billion realized last year. The administration has India due for $500 billion. India added $5 billion to its historical US investment position in 2025. South Korea’s on the hook for $450 billion, last year saw $2.4 billion.
You’ll never guess who hit their targets – the no-good Europeans President Trump is always insulting. Of $600 billion supposedly coming from the EU, $216 billion showed up in 2025. Global capital center Luxembourg accounted for the largest portion and it’s unclear where the money cycling through Luxembourg actually originates, but boasters can’t be choosers.
Did things get better in the first quarter of this year? No. The historical position data aren’t available yet but simple flows hit $92 billion (or see line 56 in Commerce Table 6.1) If you use these flows to check on White House claims, at this pace it would take until 2041 to achieve $6 trillion (and flows were slower last year). No individual country reached $20 billion in the first quarter. The UAE and Qatar, especially, better hit the gas soon.
I’ve written before that the President might be referring to portfolio investment, in US stocks and bonds. Because that rose more than $4.8 trillion in 2025, though it did drop in the first quarter. Here, Japan and South Korea join the EU in being well on their way to the White House’s numbers. The UAE’s investment actually rose, if just a bit. Saudi and Indian investment still fell, however, and Qatar again isn’t counted.
The bigger problem, of course, is rising stock and bond markets don’t help everyone. For those helped, it may not be enough to offset housing, health, and food costs. President Trump can be right that we have the hottest securities markets. He often treats the stock market as if it’s America. But stocks aren’t the economy, much less the country. For investment that directly creates jobs and directly benefits ordinary Americans, the Trump administration is falling trillions short.
