Yes, mortgage interest rates are higher today, but only by a little.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.58% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is four basis points higher than Friday but nine basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Right now, mortgage rates are caught in a tug-of-war between stubborn inflation and a weakening job market. Keep reading below the chart for more on how these opposing forces are pulling rates in different directions.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
đ What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Last week was all about jobs, this week’s all about inflation, and wouldn’t you know it â those are the two components of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Fed uses two key goals, maximum employment and a target 2% rate of inflation, to try to keep the U.S. economy on a steady keel.
Let’s recap employment first before we dig into what’s coming up this week. Friday’s jobs report was unfortunately right in line with what we saw from the private sector in last Wednesday’s ADP Employment Report, which also came in well below expectations.
Predictions for the Employment Situation Summary for July were that the country would add 83,000 jobs and unemployment would remain flat. They were half right. Unemployment was basically stable, but the U.S. actually shed 23,000 jobs in July.
The potentially worse news was that numbers for May (which were quite good) and June (which were already poor) were revised downward. The total number of jobs added in those months had been reported as 186,000. With the revisions, that’s down to 83,000.
“The data doesnât make things any easier for the Fed, who are looking for a clear picture on where the risks are biggest: inflation or the labor market,” says NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Renter.
This week, it’s on to inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, on Wednesday. Current forecasts expect these numbers to be slightly better than June, but hey, everyone thought July’s jobs report would be pretty good and look how that turned out.
We know the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. People say the Federal Reserve raises or cuts rates, but really it’s just one rate: The federal funds rate, which is an overnight borrowing rate for banks. But that super-short-term rate is highly influential. Changes to the federal funds rate ripple outward to every corner of the economy. When it looks like the Fed could make a move, mortgage lenders tend to start pricing it into their rates ahead of any official announcement.
Here’s where things could get tricky for the Federal Reserve. The Fed usually raises the federal funds rate to curb inflation; the bankers lower the funds rate to encourage hiring. We know from the Fed’s July meeting â where the funds rate was held steady â that three dissenters already wanted a rate hike to fight inflation. Weak employment like we saw in last week’s jobs report gives the folks who wanted to hold rates steady, or who may even be amenable to a rate cut, more evidence for their cases.
If this week’s CPI data is looking rough, any downward movement mortgage rates get off of last week’s employment data is likely to be curtailed. But if inflation shows any sign of tempering, we could get some softening from mortgage rates.
Refinancing might make sense if todayâs rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 7.08% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinancethan you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
đĄ Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal ârightâ time to start shopping â what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at todayâs rates.
If the answer is yes, donât get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWalletâs affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isnât in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when youâre ready to buy.
đ Should I lock my rate?
If you already have a quote youâre happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
đ¤ Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If youâre happy with the deal you have, itâs okay to commit.
đ§ Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate â usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
đ If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe â but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. Thatâs because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
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