Fed keeps rates steady. The big question now: What will Microsoft and Meta say on AI capex?
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday afternoon after the conclusion of its July meeting . Unlike recent meetings when markets had a strong sense of how the Fed would act, there was genuine uncertainty surrounding the decision the Kevin Warsh-led committee would make. Moments before the announcement at 2 p.m. ET, there was a 29% probability of a rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool . That uncertainty was reflected in the vote , with three of the 12 Federal Open Market Committee members favoring a 25-basis point rate hike. The market’s initial reaction was one of relief, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq recovering a large portion of their earlier losses and ultimately turning positive during Warsh’s press conference, which began at 2:30 p.m. ET. Warsh told reporters the Fed “will not hesitate” to act on inflation, which has been higher than the Fed’s 2% target for years. “We will deliver on price stability,” Warsh stressed, but it will take longer than the nearly nine weeks he’s been chairman. Warsh said he won’t tolerate above target inflation. “There is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target.” Our colleagues at CNBC have a live blog that features more of Warsh’s notable comments. It’s a busy earnings night ahead, with Meta Platforms and Microsoft reporting. Capital spending on AI infrastructure is the No. 1 question on investors’ minds. What the two Club holdings say about how much they plan to invest this year and into calendar 2027 could significantly impact semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks and, by extension, the broader market. Recall, last week Club name Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook by $15 billion to the range of $195 billion and $205 billion . Additionally, the Google parent said it expects capex to increase significantly next year. Alphabet stepping up capital spending should not have come as a surprise after the company completed its roughly $85 billion equity capital raise in June. Even so, the stock was punished following the announcement, though it has recovered nearly all of those losses over the past four sessions. Now, back to Wednesday night. We expect Meta Platforms will raise its capex forecast given recent reporting around its plan to build a cloud business and sell AI compute. Microsoft is viewed as a wild card, even though its Azure cloud unit has been capacity constrained for many quarters. The big picture is that, in a couple of hours, we’ll see the results from two more of the big four hyperscalers . Then, on Thursday night we hear from the fourth, Amazon . The recent plunge in the chip stocks is the market’s way of saying capex will peak soon, and what the hyperscalers say over the next few days will either confirm or push back against that narrative. Elsewhere, we’ll get the latest update on the Brian Niccol turnaround when Starbucks reports earnings after the closing bell. Arm Holdings , Lam Research , Qualcomm , Chipotle , Fortinet , and Carvana are also set to report. No companies in the portfolio report before the opening bell on Thursday. Some big names scheduled to report are Mastercard, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cigna, Quanta Services, Crocs, Solstice Advanced Materials, and American Electric Power. On the data side, the June PCE Price Index and the first estimate of second quarter GDP will be released. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
