In 2021, Tesla (TSLA -1.48%) introduced Optimus, its concept for a humanoid robot, with a dancer dressed in a bodysuit. A year later, Tesla introduced the prototype Optimus to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive, or boring for humans.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos this January, Elon Musk claimed Tesla could start shipping its first commercial Optimus robots by 2027. Let’s see how much revenue the Optimus could generate for Tesla and whether it will reduce its dependence on electric vehicles.
Image source: Tesla.
How much revenue could the Optimus generate?
Musk has repeatedly said that at scale, the Optimus would cost $20,000 to $30,000. According to supply chain reports from early September, Tesla has ordered enough components to build approximately 15,000 Optimus units in 2026. It reportedly plans to produce roughly 1,000 units per week by the end of this month and about 2,500 per week through the end of the year.
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Musk believes Tesla can produce up to one million units in 2027 as it further ramps up its production. Still, most analysts expect it to produce and deliver about 100,000 to 500,000 units — mainly for its own factories and pilot programs instead of commercial customers.
If Tesla can sell 500,000 Optimus units at $30,000 apiece in 2027, it would generate $15 billion in revenue. But that high-end estimate would represent only 12% of its projected 2027 revenue of $120.5 billion, so the Optimus won’t significantly reduce Tesla’s dependence on EVs.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.