Eli Lilly Stock Has Skyrocketed. Novo Nordisk Has Crashed. 1 Number Explains Why They’re Not Even Close Anymore.
Eli Lilly (LLY -0.99%) and Novo Nordisk (NVO -8.52%) are far and away the heavyweights in the global market for GLP-1 drugs, which effectively treat both type 2 diabetes and obesity.
And that market is exploding, particularly for obesity drugs. The global market for obesity medicines reached $66 billion in 2025. Bloomberg predicts it will hit $120 billion by 2030.
Yet Lilly’s share price is up 13.4% this year and 58% over the past 52 weeks, while Novo Nordisk shares are up just 0.4% this year and down 5% over the past 52 weeks. Since July 2024, Novo has plummeted 62%.
Today’s Change
(-0.99%) $-11.39
Current Price
$1,143.59
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$1119.00 – $1148.98
52wk Range
$623.78 – $1249.45
Volume
1.5M
Avg Vol
3M
Gross Margin
82.83%
Dividend Yield
0.56%
What explains the divergence, with Lilly soaring and Novo collapsing?
I would point to one number to explain it: market share in the obesity market, which is expected to grow faster than the diabetes drug market. The two drug companies collectively control about 87% of global prescription obesity drug revenue.
Image source: Getty Images.
But Lilly is currently dominant in that market, with a majority 60% share, primarily driven by the popularity and efficacy of its Zepbound GLP-1 obesity drug.
Today’s Change
(-8.52%) $-4.40
Current Price
$47.22
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$46.44 – $47.59
52wk Range
$35.12 – $64.16
Volume
18.8M
Avg Vol
12.5M
Gross Margin
81.84%
Dividend Yield
3.49%
That’s not to say things can’t change. Until recently, most GLP-1 drugs were delivered via injectables (i.e., needles). This spring, Novo Nordisk introduced its obesity drug Wegovy in pill form, and it’s off to a very fast start. As a result, the Danish firm revised its sales and profit forecasts higher.
So, stay tuned. The GLP-1 race is far from over, and both firms are committed to winning.
