Canadian consumer confidence rises but economic outlook stays subdued
Personal finances and job security lift the index
The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index, which measures sentiment around personal finances and job security, was the primary driver of the overall improvement, rising to 55.14 from 51.88 four weeks ago. Within that sub-index, the positive rating for personal finances climbed to 14.22 this week from 11.28 a month prior, while 34.13 per cent of respondents said they were worse off financially over the past year and 49.07 per cent reported no change.
Job security readings were notably stronger, with 42.78 per cent of respondents describing their employment situation as secure and a further 12.69 per cent as somewhat secure — a combined result suggesting that labour market anxiety, while still present for some, is not the dominant sentiment among Canadian workers right now.
Despite the improvement in pocketbook sentiment, the Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index — which captures forward-looking views on the economy and real estate — held essentially flat at 50.48, compared to 50.60 four weeks ago and 49.17 a year ago. This gap between how Canadians feel about their own circumstances versus their expectations for the broader economy is a recurring theme in the data.
On the Canadian economy specifically, 20.24 per cent of respondents said they expected it to grow stronger over the next six months, while 34.18 per cent anticipated it would weaken and 38.73 per cent expected no change. Real estate sentiment was more evenly split: 33.77 per cent of Canadians expected property values in their neighbourhood to increase, 43.58 per cent expected them to stay the same, and 17.91 per cent anticipated a decline.
The 2026 average for the BNCCI stands at 50.87, well below the all-time high of 66.42 recorded in July 2021 and also beneath the long-run index average of 54.71 since tracking began in 2008. The 2026 low of 46.31 was recorded on April 10 — a period that coincided with broader North American market volatility — before the index recovered through May and June.
