Canada’s average effective tariff rate mechanically rises to around six percent from around three percent, still below the roughly seven percent the US applies to imports from all countries, the bank said.
Canada imported about US$23bn of the products on the new tariff list from the US in 2025 against about US$20bn of exports, according to RBC, giving trade flows more scope than usual to reorient within North America.
The bank does not expect the macroeconomic impact to push the Bank of Canada toward rate cuts, and said softer underlying inflation has raised the likelihood the central bank will not hike this year.
Roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk, with about 52,000 directly exposed and another 35,000 through suppliers, according to an analysis by University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe reported by CTV News.
Ontario carries 36,100 of those, Quebec 18,300, and British Columbia 11,200, with machinery, electronics, plastics, and rubber most exposed.