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FX option expiries for 28 July 10am New York cut
There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. The market mood as we look towards European trading later is more defensive with all eyes on the rout in tech shares. It is a bloodbath in Asia and while European indices may not be as tech…
Social Insurance with Imperfect Eligibility Screening: Theory and Evidence from Pandemic UI
For helpful comments and questions, we thank Peter Ganong, Dmitri Koustas, Pascal Noel, Dhiren Patki, Evan Soltas, and numerous seminar participants. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or the official positions of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the…
What AI companies want for the millions they’re spending on elections
AI executives and companies are betting that spending millions in the 2026 midterm elections will allow them to influence AI bills being developed in Congress. As of the end of June, the two biggest artificial intelligence political action committees have dropped at least $44 million into 40 House and Senate candidates, per a CNBC analysis…
Retail traders are having a rough month
Here is an interesting chart from Luke Kawa. It shows monthly returns of Goldman Sachs’ basket of retail favorite stocks. It’s down 12% this month through yesterday, which would make it the worst month since April 2022. Note that the bad and good months tend to cluster as momentum takes over. There were a couple…
South Korean Won: Strong GDP and inflows support Won – Commerzbank
Commerzbank reports that South Korea’s advance Q2 GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. Robust AI-related semiconductor demand and resilient domestic spending underpin growth. The strong data support prospects of a further 25bp Bank of Korea hike in August. USD/KRW fell to 1,475, with the Won aided by portfolio inflows into bonds and…
Chinese Yuan: Consolidation holds upside bias against US Dollar – UOB
United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/CNH is currently consolidating in a narrow range around 6.77. In their 1–3 week view, they maintain a downside bias toward 6.7600 as long as strong resistance at 6.7820 remains intact. Over 1–3 months, they see tentative upside potential if key…
