The U.S. economy is shedding jobs. Here’s why that’s good news for stocks.
A weaker labor market may mean the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates amid benign wage inflation, says 22V.
A weaker labor market may mean the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates amid benign wage inflation, says 22V.
The Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk logos. Mike Blake | Tom Little | Reuters The diverging paths of two GLP-1 drugmakers were on full display this week. Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk beat second-quarter estimates and raised their full-year outlooks. But while investors cheered Lilly’s results, sending shares higher on Wednesday, they punished Novo…
Reality bites on ‘energy transition’ in Canada and beyond beng Tue, 07/28/2026 – 09:32 EST. READ TIME 3 MIN. For about 50 years now, beginning with the environmental movement of the 1970s, with concerns about global warming, “peak oil” and Al Gore’s Earth in the Balance, many have mused about an “energy transition” to change…
Canada’s recent technical recession made headlines—but this key indicator has been failing for years beng Thu, 08/06/2026 – 09:05 EST. READ TIME 3 MIN. Canada’s recent technical recession may have made headlines, but one of the country’s biggest economic challenges has been building for more than a decade—namely, weak business investment. Statistics Canada’s first quarter…
In The New York Times, Senators Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) propose to “save” Social Security by lifting the cap on earnings subject to the payroll taxA payroll tax is a tax paid on the wages and salaries of employees to finance social insurance programs like Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance. Payroll taxes…
We thank Manuel Diaz de la Fuente and Julian Tsang for outstanding research assistance, and seminar and conference participants at CEPR-Kiel Geoeconomics Conference, Bocconi, Bank of Italy, IFO, LSE, Munich, Stanford, the SED-AM (Athens) and the HeiTuHo Conference. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the University…
This paper has been prepared for the volume accompanying the Centennial Conference of the Central Bank of Chile in November 2025. Early versions of this material appeared in our paper “A Model of U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle.” We thank Ozge Akinci, Ricardo Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Sylvain Leduc, Guido Lorenzoni, Thomas Mertens,…