Ford government oversees worst outflow of people from Ontario in three decades

According to its “Protect Ontario” plan, the Ford government wants to increase the competitiveness of Ontario’s economy relative to the rest of Canada. This is a worthy goal that, if achieved, will help make the province more attractive to investment and people. But it will require a marked shift in policy. Indeed, under the Ford government’s current approach, people have left Ontario in droves.

Ontario has often struggled to attract more people than it loses to the rest of Canada. According to our new study, from 1995/96 to 2024/25, Ontario saw 168,166 more Ontarians move elsewhere in Canada than the number of Canadians who moved to the province. This net outflow encompassed people of all ages, and those leaving Ontario left mainly for Alberta or British Columbia.

People leave where they live for many reasons, whether to seek economic opportunity (e.g. a well-paying job), lower taxes, more affordable housing or other reasons (both economic and personal). Yet among these factors, economic opportunity, taxes and housing surely help explain this flow of people out of Ontario.

For example, Ontario’s economy has long underperformed compared to the rest of the country while Alberta (and B.C. post 2001) have generally enjoyed some of the fastest-growing economies in the country. Moreover, Alberta (and in the past, B.C.) imposes lower taxes on both personal income and business income, while also offering more affordable housing in general.

Much of this overall net migration out of Ontario has been under the Ford government. In 2018/19 (when Ford became premier), Ontario attracted 6,629 (on net) Canadians from other provinces and 2,794 more (on net) in 2019/20. But Ontario’s fortunes changed, and from 2020/21 to 2024/25 Ontario saw a combined 139,621 (on net) people leave the province and move somewhere else in Canada (the majority left after COVID). This represents an average annual outflow of 1.8 people per 1,000 residents, which is the highest average rate of out-migration in the province since 1995/96. In other words, the Ford government has overseen the largest exodus of Canadians out of Ontario in 30 years.

Back in 2018, Doug Ford campaigned on the promise to lower personal and business taxes, better control spending, balance budgets and reduce provincial debt. Lower taxes and strong economic growth (spurred by more responsible fiscal policy at Queen’s Park) would make the province more attractive. But the Ford government has so far failed to meaningfully keep any of these promises, and continues to increase spending, run deficits, rack up debt and maintain high taxes.

Moreover, to combat the housing crisis, the Ford government has adopted a largely ineffective approach to “support” more homebuilding with taxpayer dollars rather than address, with the help of local governments, the underlying factors that deter homebuilders in the first place (red tape, fees, etc.).

Given this continued mismanagement, it’s not surprising that the exodus of Canadians out of Ontario has only worsened under the Ford government.

The Ford government promised to make Ontario’s economy the most competitive in Canada. And if it achieves this goal, the province will become more attractive to people and investment. But this will require a bold plan to cut taxes, restrain spending, reduce debt and rethink how to approach housing. Maintaining the status quo will likely continue to fuel the exodus out of Ontario.