Is It Really Safe to Invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Right Now? Here’s What History Says.
The S&P 500 index has largely shrugged off the most notable headwinds of 2026. Conflict in the Middle East led to rising energy prices. There are still worries about the possible impact artificial intelligence (AI) will have on the labor market. Consumer confidence is near all-time lows. And investors continue to patiently wait for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Understanding these trends would have you question whether it’s safe to invest in something like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +0.03%) right now. Let’s look at what history tells us.
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A decade of superb returns
Anyone who follows markets and the economy knows that there will always be something to cause fear, uncertainty, and doubt. In fact, I would argue that this is the natural state of things. Investors simply have to overlook these short-term pressures with an eye on the long term. It’s always a good idea to put money to work in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.
In the past decade, this exchange-traded fund produced a total return of 306% (as of this July 23), turning a starting $10,000 investment into $40,600 today. This translates to a wonderful 15% annualized gain.
Today’s Change
(0.03%) $0.18
Current Price
$678.79
Key Data Points
AUM
$1.7T
Dividend Yield
1.08%
Expense Ratio
0.03%
Top Holdings
NVDA
7.51%
AAPL
6.59%
MSFT
4.30%
During this 10-year stretch, a global pandemic effectively shut down the economy. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus followed. Investors then had to deal with surging inflation and rapidly rising interest rates.
Don’t forget about the regional banking crisis in 2023. And last year, more-aggressive U.S. trade policy added another element of complexity to the picture.
There were periods of heightened volatility. So, it would have been rational for investors to sit on the sidelines when any of these developments occurred. Based on the market’s performance, however, this would have obviously been a huge mistake.
Play the long game
The stock market stacks the odds in favor of investors who think in decades. Long-term investing wins; the data backs this up.
Over any 10-year stretch, the S&P 500 generated a positive return 94% of the time. Extend your time horizon to increase your chances of making money. Patience and discipline are the most important attributes.
Overly fixating on near-term events that can cause you to abandon your strategy is a recipe for disaster. Trading too much, a move that sounds good in theory, can hurt performance. Over the 30-year period from 1995 to 2025, missing just the 60 best days in the market would have resulted in a negative return.
The takeaway is that it’s never a bad idea to allocate capital to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, since you are financially benefiting your future self. Just remember to stick to it through the ups and downs.
