Eli Lilly (LLY +0.15%) is the global leader in one of the hottest growth markets on the planet: the weight loss drug market. The pharma giant holds 60% of the U.S. market, while its closest rival, Novo Nordisk (NVO -1.93%), has about 38% share. Until this year, this market included only injectable drugs from these companies, and the names are quite recognizable. Lilly is the maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound, while Novo makes Ozempic and Wegovy.
This year, however, both of these companies have launched a new type of weight loss drug: weight loss pills. Novo was the first to launch the Wegovy pill, and a few months later, Lilly joined the market with Foundayo. Though Novo’s product remains ahead in the number of prescriptions written, the following trend is excellent news for Lilly and its investors. Let’s check out this new growth story.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today’s GLP-1 drugs
So, first, let’s zoom in on the current weight loss drugs in order to understand why they are seeing such success. Lilly and Novo both make products in the GLP-1 category. These drugs act on hormonal pathways that control appetite and blood sugar levels — and these elements are key in the weight-loss process. GLP-1 drugs are easy to self-administer through an injection pen or syringe once a week and have proven to be safe and efficacious in clinical trials and in the real world. And all of that has helped them become immensely successful, with demand a couple of years ago even surpassing supply — Lilly and Novo have since ramped up manufacturing, and the drugs are no longer in short supply.
Now, all of that refers to the companies’ injectable drugs. But as I mentioned, this year, Lilly and Novo each are selling new oral drugs. Novo’s Wegovy pill involves the same ingredient found in the injectable: semaglutide. But Lilly’s Foundayo doesn’t include the tirzepatide used in Mounjaro and Zepbound. Instead, Lilly developed another medicine, orforglipron, and that’s the active ingredient in Foundayo.
Today’s Change
(0.15%) $1.71
Current Price
$1,137.82
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$1132.63 – $1151.23
52wk Range
$712.05 – $1292.65
Volume
1.4K
Avg Vol
2.7M
Gross Margin
83.40%
Dividend Yield
0.59%
Novo’s Wegovy pill has a big lead in total prescriptions, recently reaching 183,000, according to FiercePharma, citing Citi analysts and IQVIA data. Foundayo’s prescriptions totaled about 47,500, the data show. Here’s the trend that’s excellent news for Lilly investors: Though Novo clearly remains ahead in oral prescriptions, the gap is progressively narrowing. And just two years ago, Novo held the lead by far in injectable GLP-1 prescriptions before Lilly gradually increased its market share — and went on to dominate that market, as I talked about above.
Foundayo vs the Wegovy pill
Could the same thing be happening in the GLP-1 pill market? It’s very possible. Unlike Novo’s Wegovy pill, Lilly’s Foundayo can be taken at any time of day on an empty or full stomach, making it more convenient. That could prompt more patients to choose this option.
That said, it may be more difficult to convince current GLP-1 patients to switch from their usual medicine to Foundayo because it’s a different product. Switching may be less of a problem for the Wegovy pill because its active ingredient is the same as the one in injectable Wegovy. I don’t think this will halt uptake of Foundayo, but it could mean it would take the drug longer to catch up to the Wegovy pill or surpass it.
Still, it’s important to remember that Lilly’s leadership in the overall GLP-1 market and the company’s solid pipeline of candidates that could result in other products down the road make it a behemoth in this valuable market. Analysts expect the weight loss drug market to approach $100 billion by the end of the decade.
All of this, and the company’s steady progress in gaining prescriptions in the oral GLP-1 market, is fantastic news for Lilly and its investors today and looking into the future.