“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.
What’s driving the Strait of Hormuz crisis?
The escalation followed U.S. strikes on three Iranian oil tankers in response to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeting two U.S. warships with ballistic missiles.
Since the war erupted with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, Iran has increased restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
An average of 10 commodity ships transited the Strait of Hormuz per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, according to shipping data released Monday.
Brent spot futures have climbed to $97, while the options-implied probability of Brent topping $100 in March 2027 has jumped to approximately 25%, from roughly 6% a month ago, according to Goldman’s strategists.