Social Security COLA 2027 Estimate: Biggest Raise Since 2023

Two widely cited estimates for the 2027 Social Security COLA put it at 3.5% and 3.6%. Both would mark the biggest raise since 2023’s 8.7% jump, and a clear step up from this year’s 2.8%. The Social Security Administration won’t confirm the number until Oct. 14, once September’s inflation report is in.

COLA stands for cost-of-living adjustment, the annual increase Social Security applies to keep benefits in step with inflation. Every retiree, survivor, and disabled worker on Social Security gets the same percentage increase, added automatically each January.

Every fall, millions of retirees wait to see how much their Social Security check will grow next year. Here’s what we know now, and what to watch for before the real number lands.

The 2027 COLA Estimate Has Slipped to 3.6%, and Could Still Move

The Senior Citizens League puts the 2027 Social Security COLA at 3.6%, down from its spring estimate of 3.9%. AARP’s analysis puts it a touch lower, at 3.5%. Both groups based their numbers on July’s inflation report, the first of three months that feed into the official calculation. The Senior Citizens League expects to update its estimate again in mid-September, once August’s numbers are in. The Social Security Administration announces the final number on Oct. 14, after September’s inflation report comes in.

Either number would beat the average Social Security COLA of the last 20 years, which has run about 2.6%.

The Estimated Raise Adds About $75 to the Average Check

The average retired worker collects about $2,086 a month as of July 2026, according to Social Security Administration data. A 3.6% raise would add roughly $75 to that check.

Your own increase will look different. COLA is a percentage of your benefit, so a bigger starting check gets a bigger raise in dollar terms. Say your benefit is $1,500. A 3.6% raise adds about $54. At $2,500, it’s closer to $90.

There’s a catch worth planning around. Medicare Part B premiums rise each January too. For some retirees, that increase eats into a meaningful share of the COLA before the money reaches their account. Higher earners subject to IRMAA surcharges tend to feel this the most.

Medicare Open Enrollment Opens the Day After the COLA Announcement

Medicare Open Enrollment runs Oct. 15 through Dec. 7 every year, and this year it opens one day after the SSA announces the COLA on Oct. 14. That timing works in your favor. You’ll have the official number before you have to compare Medicare plans for 2027.

Medicare Part B premiums come straight out of your Social Security check, so a premium increase eats directly into whatever the COLA adds. A plan comparison that only looks at premiums misses half the picture. Your real cost is the premium increase weighed against the raise that’s covering part of it.

The difference between 3.5% and 3.6% won’t change that math much. What matters more is using some estimate rather than none while you compare plans this fall.

If you’re updating your retirement budget for other reasons, the same range works there too. Run your current benefit at both 3.5% and 3.6% and adjust once the number is final.

A 3.6% Raise Would Beat the 20-Year Average COLA of 2.6%

A 3.6% raise would beat the 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year averages below, though not the last 5 years or the full run back to 1975.

Window	Average COLA
Last 5 years	4.6%
Last 10 years	3.1%
Last 20 years	2.6%
Last 30 years	2.5%
Since 1975	3.7%

Both of the numbers it doesn’t beat get pulled up by outlier stretches: the 2022 and 2023 inflation spikes, and the double-digit increases of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Three of the last 17 years brought no COLA at all: 2010, 2011, and 2016.

The Formula That Sets COLA Penalizes How Retirees Spend

The formula itself hasn’t changed since 1975. Each COLA compares average prices across July, August, and September against the same three months a year earlier, using the CPI-W: the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. That percentage increase becomes the COLA.

The Social Security Act requires this specific index, and CPI-W tracks what working-age urban households spend. Retirees spend on different things. Healthcare eats up a bigger share of a retiree’s budget than it does for most workers. Healthcare costs are projected to climb 5.8% a year long term, according to HealthView Services. Medicare Part B premiums deducted from Social Security alone rose 9.7% in 2026.

An alternative index exists. The R-CPI-E tracks prices for people 62 and older. It’s existed since the Older Americans Act of 1987 required research into it. Congress has never adopted it, so CPI-W remains the standard even though it wasn’t built with retirees in mind.

If your own costs on healthcare and housing run higher than the COLA suggests, plan for that difference now.

You Can Build the 2027 Estimate Into Your Plan Now

Running your numbers by hand gets complicated fast. Medicare premiums, taxes on your benefit, and how a COLA ripples through decades of withdrawals all factor in. Most people don’t have a clean way to see all of that at once.

The Boldin Planner lets you plug in different COLA assumptions and watch how they move your entire retirement picture. Plug in the current estimate today, then update it once the official number is confirmed in October. You’ll see the real effect on your plan instead of guessing at it.

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FAQ: Social Security COLA 2027