Declaring the second-quarter earnings season “fabulous,” longtime market bull and veteran market strategist Edward Yardeni has raised his price target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and for corporate earnings.
By the end of this year, Yardeni, who leads the firm that bears his name, now sees the benchmark index rising to 8,400 points, up from his prior estimate of 8,250. He suggested that there would be a 6.75% rise from Tuesday’s 7,728 close.
“What a fabulous Q2-2026 earnings season it has been!” the founder of Yardeni Research wrote in market commentary yesterday. “We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have since mid-2025. The result has been an earnings-led melt-up in the stock market to record highs.”
The rosy earnings outlook and corporate earnings are being driven by an economy that remains resilient, according to Yardeni, who maintains that there’s only a 20% chance of a recession that might cause a bear market.
“We aren’t anticipating a recession,” said Yardeni, head of the Glen Head, N.Y., research firm that bears his name.
With the median consensus from Wall Street investment banks at 7,850 and Oppenheimer at the high at 8,100, the so-called “perma-bull” is now leading a bullish charge that has swept up other analysts.
In recent days, analysts at big banks such as J.P. Morgan have been lifting their targets for the benchmark as well, citing stronger-than-expected corporate earnings powered by strong spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Yardeni has been bullish on earnings for a while. He noted that in early May he raised his S&P 500 earnings per share estimates for this year to $330 and for 2027 to $375 in response to a strong first quarter. Even in May, he said, those “were bullish estimates.”
But even his optimistic projection pales against the increasingly sunnier view of industry analysts.
Now, his projections trail Wall Street consensus EPS estimates for both years, of $359.60 (up 32.6% from $271.29 last year) and $408.83 (up 13.4% from the current 2026 consensus estimate), he wrote.
Yardeni is raising his S&P 500 earnings per share estimates to $375 from $330 for this year and to $415 for 2027 from $375. He explained that mark-to-market gains recognized by Alphabet, Amazon and Meta in the first and second quarters account for nearly $20 of the $45 increase in earnings he’s projecting for this year.
Mark-To-Market Gains Also Boosting Earnings
The strategist noted that, so far, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported and they’ve “broadly crushed industry analysts’ forecasts for earnings and profit margins.”
Along with earnings estimates, Yardeni also raised top-line projections for the benchmark index. The strategist is now looking for S&P 500 companies to generate revenue per share of $2,250 for this year (up from $2,200) and $2,450 for 2027 (up from his prior $2,300 estimate).
He also said that “soaring” prices for semiconductors and other AI-related hardware are further boosting overall profit margins for S&P 500 companies.
‘Roaring 2020s’
Yardeni said he’s maintaining his 10,000 price target for the S&P 500 for the end of 2029. In his view, ongoing productivity gains, strong earnings growth and resilient consumer demand will result in a strong economy and stock market, mirroring historical decades such as the 1920s.
“We think any pullback (and even a meltdown) will be a buying opportunity and won’t trigger a recession or bear market similar to the 1999-2000 Tech Bubble and Tech Wreck,” Yardeni wrote.
Summing up the performance of the economy, the stock market and corporate earnings, the strategist concluded that he’s “never seen anything like this.”