Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021 | NBER
We thank Leah Boustan, Molly Dahl, Ira Gang, Rebecca Heller, Seth Sanders, Todd Sorensen, seminar participants at University of Chicago Harris School, and participants at the NBER Spring 2026 “Immigrants and the U.S. Economy” conference for comments. This paper has not been subject to CBO’s regular review and editing process. The views expressed here should not be interpreted as CBO’s. This analysis will improve the Congressional Budget Office’s long-run projections of Social Security, as it improves the agency’s ability to model the earnings of immigrants and, subsequently, the effects of immigrants on Social Security finances. Any conclusions expressed are our own and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results were approved for release by the Disclose Review Board of the U.S. Census Bureau, authorization number CBDRB-FY21-301. Any errors are ours alone. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
