Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race by Antonin Bergeaud & Robin Rivaton


The AI race is no longer just about building better models. As competition shifts from scientific discovery to deployment, success increasingly depends on computing power, advanced semiconductors, physical infrastructure, and markets large enough to justify the enormous investments they require.

PARIS—Did the AI boom begin when it did simply as a result of scientific breakthroughs? At first glance, it would seem so. The transformer architecture—the foundation of today’s large language models—was introduced in 2017. By 2020, researchers had established the basic logic of scaling: more computation and data produce predictably better models. Then, in late 2022, the public launch of ChatGPT revealed the mass-market appeal of these technologies, setting off a global race for AI leadership.

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